15.9.08

Zimbabwe' - A new deal for african elections

Zimbabwe’s power sharing deal gives a vague sense of hope to those who’ve despaired of a solution to the leadership crisis for a state that went in very quick bound from bread basket to basket case. The nature of the deal which leaves, Robert Mugabe undiminished in his position of president, but gives Morgan Tsivangirai the position of prime minister feels of course like another one of those African dances that involves two steps forward and one step back. It seems a precedent is being set for what happens when there are disputed African elections. The incumbent seizes power or declares victory in hastily convened elections, and the opposition galvanise an increasingly incensed people to protest against the thwarting of their democratic will. To avoid full-scale civil war, a compromise solution is reached in which the two sides agree to share power. This has been the case most recently in Kenya, and a bit further back in Cote d’Ivoire. On the upside, we might be witnessing the steady erosion of the all or nothing approach to politics; albeit, a very grudgingly conceded one as witnessed by Mugabe’s murderous intransigence. It’s interesting to note that the two places where such compromises have now been reached, the opposition’s power and appeal is based on trade union movements that have been able to a degree to transcend ethnic divisions; in fact, the political maturity of leaders such as Tsivangirai and Odinga in railing in their supporters from violence might be a model example for other African nations, not least, the reputedly stable South African body politics (and its undoubtedly polarising upcoming elections) to follow, in the coming years. The fact that each side controls some coercive power of the state Tsivangirai the police and Mugabe, gives some hope that the balance of power won’t rest solely on who shouts the loudest at the unwieldy cabinet meetings.

Nevertheless, watching Mugabe, Tsivangirai, and Mbeki signing the accord, I couldn’t help feeling just how cosy the whole deal seemed, even the third wheel Mutambara was fitted in.

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